Stocks, bonds regain some poise, 'political noise' blunts underlying optimism

By Amanda Cooper LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks and bonds regained some stability on Tuesday, as political upheaval in France, Japan and the U.S. rippled through markets, but did not offset underlying investor optimism over a possible boost from lower U.S. interest rates. In Europe, the euro fell for a second day, while stocks dipped, although volatility was more contained, as investors awaited developments in France, where the shock resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu on Monday threw Europe's second-biggest economy deeper into crisis. Meanwhile, the week-old U.S. government shutdown rumbled on, with little sign of the impasse breaking. And in Japan, investors snapped up a sale of government debt, in a sign of easing nervousness after Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of low rates and high spending, was elected leader of the ruling party, prompting a selloff in domestic bonds and the currency and sending stocks to record peaks. STOCKS NEAR RECORD HIGHS That said, world stocks hovered near record highs, underpinned by optimism over the likelihood of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and by another jolt of AI-related euphoria following a multi-billion-dollar chip-supply deal between AMD and OpenAI. "The fundamental narrative is still one of Fed rate cuts, and that is likely to continue for the remainder of the year and into next year," said Daiwa Capital economist Chris Scicluna. "Coupled with the AI story and the boost to the demand in activity that is going to be associated with it … is something that should sustain demand for risk assets," he added. "You’ve got political noise maybe interrupting that, but it's certainly not a showstopper at the moment." The dollar rose 0.3% against a basket of currencies, led mainly by gains versus the euro and the yen, which struggled at two-month lows on the weaker side of 150 per dollar, eliciting a warning from Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato about excess volatility. "The yen looks likely to remain under pressure for some time. The political shift under Sanae Takaichi has reinforced expectations that fiscal stimulus will take precedence over monetary tightening, reducing the odds of a near-term BOJ rate hike," said Tareck Horchani, head of prime brokerage dealing at Maybank Securities. "Fiscal expansion financed by higher bond issuance is also steepening the yield curve and weighing further on sentiment toward the currency." On the European market, the STOXX 600, which hit record highs last week, fell 0.2%. Paris' CAC 40 dipped 0.3%, having posted its largest one-day fall since late August on Monday. President Emmanuel Macron has given Lecornu a chance to hold last-ditch talks with members of various parties on Tuesday to seek a way out of the crisis. French bond yields edged up 2.4 basis points to 3.59%, matching Monday's highs, while the euro remained under pressure, easing 0.3% to $1.168. WORLD BANK UPS CHINA 2025 GROWTH FORECAST Political undercurrents aside, U.S. stock futures dipped just 0.1%, pointing to a softer open later for the benchmark indexes, which hit all-time highs on Monday. The World Bank, meanwhile, lifted its forecasts for Chinese growth in 2025 and those for much of the region, although it warned of slowing momentum next year. In commodities, oil prices steadied on Tuesday, with Brent crude futures up 0.17% to $65.58 a barrel. Gold hit an all-time high of $3,977.19 an ounce, while bitcoin hovered just below a record $126,223. (Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Christopher Cushing, Kim Coghill and Louise Heavens)

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