Analysis-Labubu resale price falls may be more about supply than demand

By Casey Hall and Sophie Yu SHANGHAI (Reuters) -Kasidit Teerawiboosin, 22, has ridden the wave of Labubu's success as a reseller in Thailand of toys from Pop Mart, but the days of easily making money flipping the toothy-grinned monsters are numbered. "Prices in the Thai resale market are going down really, really, really fast," said Teerawiboosin, who has been buying Pop Mart toys and selling them on unopened since early 2024. Labubu are part of Pop Mart's "The Monsters" series of toys which accounted for more than a third of first-half revenue, as sales soared thanks to the influence of celebrity fans such as Lisa of K-pop group Blackpink, singer Rihanna and ex-soccer star David Beckham. That has led to a booming resale market, supporting prices of both the toys and Pop Mart stock. But resale prices worldwide have dropped since their summer peak, raising questions about the longevity of demand for the Chinese toymaker's cash cow. Data from Chinese art toy resale platform Qiandao showed the price of Labubu character "Luck", launched in April, peaked in June above 500 yuan ($70.20) on the secondary market but is now around 108 yuan. Prices of other characters in the same series have fallen below those at official Pop Mart stores. Investors have been quick to pin the fall in resale prices on cooling demand, with Pop Mart's share price down around 25% since August highs, though analysts and the company itself have said that the issue is supply rather than demand. The stock is still up 186% year to date. Pop Mart said it has increased supply of plush toys, including Labubu, by 10 times this year and that it produces around 30 million units a month. "It's similar to concert tickets," said Sid Si, Pop Mart's executive director and co-COO, in response to Reuters' questions about Labubu's resale value. "Fans often end up scrambling for overpriced resold concert tickets because venues can't simply add more seats to meet surging demand, but for Pop Mart, there's a crucial difference – we can proactively increase supply to ease demand pressure." A summer sales boom means it is almost impossible to buy a Labubu from a Pop Mart store. Falling resale prices, then, could "potentially" indicate satisfied demand but also more supply considering resellers likely made up a significant portion of first market sales, said Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang. Resale demand may therefore not be the primary concern. Investors "may also incorporate a higher risk premium for Pop Mart's earnings if revenue growth peaks in this year," he said. Pop Mart's revenue grew as much as 250% in July-September, outpacing the 204.4% growth of the first half of the year, a stock exchange filing showed. Morgan Stanley analysts, in a September client note, said "prices in the second-hand market do not effectively reflect the true supply and demand situation" especially given Pop Mart's effort to limit scalping this year and "overly relying on this indicator may lead to misleading conclusions". Up-and-coming characters such as "Twinkle Twinkle" and scope for international expansion remain important factors for Pop Mart's growth, Morgan Stanley analysts said. With Pop Mart opening its largest store in Bangkok in August, Teerawiboosin also links the fall in resale value to an increase in Pop Mart's direct-to-consumer business, prompting resellers in Thailand to look overseas for new sales channels. "Resellers are starting to export to other countries, especially like Europe or Russia – places that don't have official Pop Mart stores," he said. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Casey Hall in Shanghai and Sophie Yu in Beijing; Editing by Christopher Cushing)

(The article has been published through a syndicated feed. Except for the headline, the content has been published verbatim. Liability lies with original publisher.)