Tesla set for strong quarter fueled by rush to get expiring US EV tax credits

By Akash Sriram and Abhirup Roy (Reuters) -Tesla is expected to post a surge in third-quarter results later on Wednesday, thanks to U.S. buyers rushing to take advantage of an expiring $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit. But investors and analysts may be more focused on Chief Executive Elon Musk's outlook, including whether new, cheaper versions of its Model 3 and Model Y Tesla can keep U.S. customers buying and attract new ones in Europe and Asia.  The new trims – called Standard – are $5,000 to $5,500 cheaper than their predecessors as Tesla shrank the battery, switched to a less-powerful motor and stripped out myriad features – from rear touchscreens to seat-back pockets. The company also temporarily has slashed lease prices on the higher-priced Premium versions. The cheaper Standard variants as well as Tesla's offers and discounts to stave off competition globally throughout the year have pressured the company's once-enviable margins, worrying investors. Sales of Tesla's aging lineup declined for the first time last year and analysts expect an 8.5% fall this year, in part because of Musk's far-right political rhetoric. ROBOTAXIS ROLLOUT UPDATE Musk also will be expected to update on robotaxis, the project that he sees as the key to Tesla's next stage of growth. Musk has said Tesla's robotaxis will serve half the population of the U.S. by year-end. "What are the relevant metrics – fleet size, cumulative miles, and territories – you expect in Q4 and 2026?" was the top question for the CEO in a note by analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald on Tuesday.  While Musk has pivoted Tesla's focus to robotics and artificial intelligence and much of the company's $1.4 trillion valuation hangs on that bet, most of its current revenue and profit comes from vehicle sales.  Tesla shares, which were down 1.6% on Wednesday, have risen nearly 10% this year, propelled by a record-breaking $1 trillion pay package for Musk that the board proposed last month. The stock is still largely among the laggards in the 'Magnificent 7' group of mega-cap stocks. Analysts expect Tesla to report a revenue of $26.24 billion in the quarter ended September, up 4.2% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by LSEG. Tesla also will report on whether regulatory credits that it sold to makers of gasoline-powered cars to satisfy pollution standards have faded away after policy changes by the Trump administration. Automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, is estimated to be 15.6%, according to 19 analysts polled by Visible Alpha. That is lower than 17.05%, a year earlier. (Reporting by Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Abhirup Roy in San Francisco; editing by Peter Henderson and Stephen Coates)

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