(Updates for market close) Oct 2 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures fell on Thursday as traders booked profits, after prices hit a more than two-month high following a government report showing a smaller-than-expected storage build. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 3.4 cents, or about 1%, to settle at $3.442 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract hit its highest level since July 18 earlier in the session. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended September 26. That was smaller than the 68 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a boost of 54 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2020-2024) average build of 85 bcf for this time of year. "The market definitely got a boost as the injection into inventory was much smaller than expected. It was a big miss… and I think what we're seeing here is that the demand for fuels was higher than expected last week," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 16. The November contract is expected to find support around $3.40 and will likely trade within a range of $3.36 to $3.47, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 101.5 bcfd this week to 99.2 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports hit a record in September at 9.4 million metric tons, beating their previous record of 9.3 million metric tons in August, according to preliminary data from LSEG. Demand for LNG as a marine fuel will at least double by 2030 as abundant supply and rising emissions regulations spur orders for ships that can run on it, industry executives said. Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices were little changed early on Thursday as lower LNG supply due to a strike in France was offset by weaker demand from power plants amid strong wind power output. Week ended Year ago Five-year Week Sep 19 Sep 26 average Sep ended Sep Actual 26 26 Actual U.S. weekly +75 +54 +85 natgas storage +53 change (bcf): U.S. total 3,508 3,540 3,390 natgas in 3,561 storage (bcf): U.S. total +6.1% storage versus +5% 5-year average Global Gas This Prior Year Five-Year Benchmark Current Prior Day Month Average 2024 Average Futures ($ per Day Last Year (2019-2023) mmBtu) Henry Hub 2.57 2.41 3.52 3.46 3.38 Title Transfer 12.89 10.95 15.47 Facility (TTF) 10.05 10.73 Japan Korea 13.35 11.89 15.23 Marker (JKM) 11.04 11.05 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Current Forecast Day Prior Day Prior 10-Year Norm 30-Year Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 64 54 54 77 92 U.S. GFS CDDs 76 83 74 59 46 U.S. GFS TDDs 140 137 128 136 138 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week This Week Five-Year Current Next Last Year (2020-2024) Week Week Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 107.2 101.4 98.1 Dry Production 107.2 107.7 U.S. Imports 7.0 N/A 7.4 from Canada 6.8 7.2 U.S. LNG 0.0 0.0 0.0 Imports 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. 114.3 N/A 105.5 Supply 114.1 114.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports 2.0 N/A 2.2 to Canada 2.1 2.3 U.S. Exports 7.9 N/A 6.1 to Mexico 6.8 6.9 U.S. LNG 15.6 12.1 11.3 Export Feedgas 16.1 15.9 U.S. 4.8 4.9 6.9 Commercial 4.8 5.3 U.S. 3.8 4.1 7.1 Residential 3.9 4.8 U.S. Power 41.6 37.9 31.7 Plant 38.4 34.5 U.S. 22.1 21.9 22.4 Industrial 21.9 22.2 U.S. Plant 5.3 5.3 5.2 Fuel 5.3 5.3 U.S. Pipe 2.1 2.1 2.8 Distribution 2.0 2.0 U.S. Vehicle 0.1 0.1 0.2 Fuel 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. 79.8 76.3 76.3 Consumption 76.5 74.2 Total U.S. 105.3 N/A 95.9 Demand 101.5 99.2 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest 2025 2024 2023 River Forecast 2026 2026 % of % of Normal % of Normal Center (NWRFC) Current Normal Actual Actual at The Dalles Day % of Actual Dam (Fiscal Normal Prior year ending Forecast Day % of Sep 30) Normal Forecast Apr-Sep 76 74 83 92 92 Jan-Jul 78 76 77 86 86 Oct-Sep 80 77 76 88 88 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA 2024 2023 2022 Week Week ended Oct ended Sep 3 26 Wind 11 10 11 7 7 Solar 5 4 3 7 6 Hydro 6 6 6 4 4 Other 1 2 2 1 1 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 42 41 38 45 45 Coal 16 17 21 17 18 Nuclear 19 19 19 19 18 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Prior Day Day Henry Hub 3.24 3.12 Transco Z6 New York 1.55 1.70 PG&E Citygate Eastern Gas (old Dominion 1.60 1.79 South) Chicago Citygate 2.98 2.91 Algonquin Citygate 3.05 2.75 SoCal Citygate Waha Hub AECO ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Prior Day Day New England PJM West Mid C 43.43 41.92 Palo Verde 23.88 20.88 SP-15 21.38 20.60 (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Nick Zieminski, Bill Berkrot and Jamie Freed)
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