(Adds latest prices) By Anushree Mukherjee Oct 14 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 2% on Tuesday to hit a more than two-week low, weighed down by forecasts for milder weather and lower demand in the coming days. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 2.9% lower at $3.03 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), hitting their lowest level since September 26. "Natural gas prices continue to come under pressure as the late season heat, which is currently providing elevated power sector demands in the central US, is expected to soften and shift more bearish as it migrates north," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 28. Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 100.7 bcfd last week to 99.5 bcfd this week. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states stood at 106.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August. "For the day, look for the November contract to find support around $3.03 and any rally back to be limited by resistance at $3.13," Cunningham added. Gas pricing will continue to be driven more by the weather than by daily shifts in fundamentals such as production and exports, analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. And with the shoulder period soon approaching, the weather factor will be further diminished in likely narrowing weekly price ranges, they added. Meanwhile, Shell has approved the development of an offshore gas project in Nigeria along with its joint venture partner Sunlink Energies, the oil major said on Tuesday, the latest in a series of investments by its Nigerian business. Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas contracts were little changed on Tuesday morning after falling for four consecutive days, as a rise in demand amid less windy and chillier weather this week was tempered by rising imports of liquefied natural gas. Week Week Year ago Five-ye ended Oct ended Oct 10 ar 10 Oct 3 average Forecast Actual Oct 10 U.S. weekly +75 +80 +77 +83 natgas storage change (bcf): U.S. total 3,716 3,641 3,695 3,567 natgas in storage (bcf): U.S. total +4.2% +4.5% storage versus 5-year average Global Gas Current Prior This Prior Five- Benchmark Day Day Month Year Year Futures ($ Last Average Avera per mmBtu) Year 2024 ge (2019 -2023 ) Henry Hub 3.05 3.06 2.58 2.41 3.52 Title 10.17 10.73 12.89 10.95 15.47 Transfer Facility (TTF) Japan Korea 11.04 11.06 13.35 11.89 15.23 Marker (JKM) LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Current Prior Prior 10-Year 30-Ye Total Day Day Year Norm ar Forecast Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 107 103 101 124 132 U.S. GFS CDDs 47 47 35 36 28 U.S. GFS TDDs 154 150 136 160 160 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Current Next This Five- Week Week Week Week Year Last (2020 Year -2024 ) Avera ge For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 106.5 106.4 106.9 101.9 98.1 Dry Production U.S. Imports 6.9 7.3 7.2 N/A 7.4 from Canada U.S. LNG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Imports Total U.S. 113.4 113.7 114.1 N/A 105.5 Supply U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports 2.4 2.3 2.3 N/A 2.2 to Canada U.S. Exports 6.6 6.5 6.6 N/A 6.1 to Mexico U.S. LNG 16.1 16.9 17.0 13.9 11.3 Export Feedgas U.S. 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.0 6.9 Commercial U.S. 4.9 6.2 7.2 8.1 7.1 Residential U.S. Power 35.8 32.2 31.1 33.6 31.7 Plant U.S. 22.2 22.2 22.5 22.8 22.4 Industrial U.S. Plant 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Fuel U.S. Pipe 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 Distribution U.S. Vehicle 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Fuel Total U.S. 75.5 73.9 74.8 78.9 76.3 Consumption Total U.S. 100.7 99.5 100.7 N/A 95.9 Demand N/A is Not Available U.S. 2026 2026 2025 2024 2023 Northwest Current Prior % of % of % of River Day % of Day % of Normal Normal Norma Forecast Normal Normal Actual Actual l Center Forecast Forecast Actua (NWRFC) at l The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) Apr-Sep 93 93 76 74 83 Jan-Jul 88 87 78 76 77 Oct-Sep 88 88 80 77 76 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA Week Week 2024 2023 2022 ended Oct ended 17 Oct 10 Wind 13 10 11 10 11 Solar 7 7 5 4 3 Hydro 4 5 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 38 42 42 41 38 Coal 17 18 16 17 21 Nuclear 19 17 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Prior This Prior Five- Day Day Month Year Year Last Average Avera Year 2024 ge (2019 -2023 ) Henry Hub 2.90 2.90 2.19 2.19 3.49 Transco Z6 1.49 1.49 1.64 1.98 3.29 New York PG&E Citygate 3.56 3.56 3.72 3.04 5.47 Eastern Gas 1.28 1.28 1.53 1.68 2.77 (old Dominion South) Chicago 2.69 2.70 2.01 2.00 3.41 Citygate Algonquin 1.63 1.63 1.80 2.88 4.27 Citygate SoCal 2.84 2.84 2.60 2.47 5.92 Citygate Waha Hub -1.56 -1.56 0.59 0.77 2.91 AECO 1.21 0.86 0.77 0.96 2.28 ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour ) Hub Current Prior This Prior Five- Day Day Month Year Year Last Average Avera Year 2024 ge (2019 -2023 ) New England 39.61 33.53 40.14 47.35 48.44 PJM West 61.28 57.65 41.96 41.98 45.33 Mid C 55.03 47.66 55.48 63.89 61.73 Palo Verde 24.75 24.83 45.83 39.50 62.42 SP-15 30.62 26.47 35.86 31.30 58.87 (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Nick Zieminski)
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