(Updates with HSBC, StanChart forecasts) September 30 (Reuters) – Major brokerages reiterated their stance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its two upcoming meetings this year following the U.S. central bank's widely anticipated quarter-point reduction. Standard Chartered became the latest brokerage to forecast two more cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at a press conference after the two-day monetary policy meeting, hinted at further policy easing, emphasizing that the softening job market was now top of mind for him and his fellow policymakers. BofA Global Research does not expect a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting, but said that risks have risen for the next cut to be pulled forward to October, if jobs data worsens. With a U.S. government shutdown looming , Wall Street is preparing for gaps in official economic data, which could cause investors to rely more on alternative data or take on more defensive positions as they anticipate volatility in asset prices. The U.S. Labor Department said on Monday that economic data releases would be halted in the event of a government shutdown, heightening investor concerns that Friday's jobs report may be delayed, potentially complicating how markets interpret the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2025: Brokerage Total cuts in No. of cuts in Fed Funds Rate 2025 2025 (end of 2025) Citigroup 50 bps 2 3.00-3.25% (March 2026) Wells Fargo 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% Goldman Sachs 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% J.P.Morgan 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% Barclays 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% Nomura 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% Morgan Stanley 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% Deutsche Bank 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% BofA Global 25 bps 1 (in 3.75-4.00% Research December) UBS Global 75 bps(by Q1 2 3.25-3.50% (by Research 2026) Q1 2026) BNP Paribas 50 bps 2 3.50-3.75% 50 2 HSBC bps 3.50-3.75% UBS Global 75 bps(by Q1 2 3.25-3.50% (by Wealth 2026) Q1 2026) Management Standard 50 2 Chartered bps 3.50-3.75% * UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group (Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Anil D'Silva and Tasim Zahid)
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