( ) * Natural gas futures fall despite cooler weather forecasts * Waha Hub prices turn positive as some producers shut wells * Tropical storms unlikely to impact U.S. mainland By Scott DiSavino Oct 8 (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Wednesday as some traders took profits after prices rose to an 11-week high amid a smaller than previously forecast drop in output and ample supplies of gas in storage. That price decline came despite forecasts for cooler weather that should boost demand for heating over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 5.1 cents, or 1.5%, to $3.447 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:09 a.m. EDT (1309 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since July 18. That price decline pushed the contract out of technically overbought territory. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas turned positive on Tuesday for the first time in 11 days. Analysts at Perella Weinberg Partners' TPH&Co energy business said in a note that Waha prices likely turned positive as some producers decided to shut wells and wait for pipeline maintenance to end rather than continue paying others to take their gas. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Jerry would strengthen into a hurricane on Thursday as it marches northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands and then northeast toward Bermuda over the next week. The NHC also projected a disorganized trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico off Mexico's east coast had a 10% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days. Neither tropical system was expected to hit the U.S mainland over the next week. Even though storms can boost U.S. gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, they are more likely to reduce prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. About 40% of the power generated in the U.S. comes from gas-fired plants. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary 13-week low of 104.7 bcfd on Wednesday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. Wednesday's projected daily output was higher than forecast on Tuesday and compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through October 23. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 98.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. Week Wee Year Five ende k ago -yea d end Oct r Oct ed 3 aver 3 Sep age Fore 27 Oct cast Act 3 ual U.S. weekly +80 +53 +78 +94 natgas storage change (bcf): U.S. total 3,64 3,5 3,61 3,48 natgas in 1 61 8 4 storage (bcf): U.S. total +4.5 +5. storage versus % 0% 5-year average Global Gas Curr Pri This Prio Five Benchmark ent or Mont r -Yea Futures ($ per Day Day h Year r mmBtu) Last Aver Aver Year age age 2024 (201 9-20 23) Henry Hub 3.51 3.5 2.58 2.41 3.52 0 Title Transfer 11.2 11. 12.8 10.9 15.4 Facility (TTF) 7 42 9 5 7 Japan Korea 11.1 11. 13.3 11.8 15.2 Marker (JKM) 4 13 5 9 3 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Curr Pri Prio 10-Y 30-Y Forecast ent or r ear ear Day Day Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 98 89 89 105 127 U.S. GFS CDDs 62 62 59 58 41 U.S. GFS TDDs 160 151 148 163 168 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prio Cur Next This Five r ren Week Week -Yea Week t Last r Wee Year (202 k 0-20 24) Aver age For Mont h U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 107. 106 106. 101. 98.1 Dry Production 3 .3 8 7 U.S. Imports 6.8 6.9 7.2 N/A 7.4 from Canada U.S. LNG 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Imports Total U.S. 114. 113 114. N/A 105. Supply 2 .2 0 5 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports 2.1 2.4 2.4 N/A 2.2 to Canada U.S. Exports 6.8 6.4 6.7 N/A 6.1 to Mexico U.S. LNG 16.2 16. 16.4 12.6 11.3 Export Feedgas 1 U.S. 4.9 5.3 6.0 5.4 6.9 Commercial U.S. 4.0 4.8 5.8 4.9 7.1 Residential U.S. Power 38.4 35. 31.6 36.6 31.7 Plant 3 U.S. 21.9 22. 22.2 22.1 22.4 Industrial 1 U.S. Plant 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 Fuel U.S. Pipe 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.8 Distribution U.S. Vehicle 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Fuel Total U.S. 76.6 74. 72.9 76.4 76.3 Consumption 8 Total U.S. 101. 99. 98.4 N/A 95.9 Demand 6 7 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest 2026 202 2025 2024 2023 River Forecast Curr 6 % of % of % of Center (NWRFC) ent Pr Norm Norm Norm at The Dalles Day ior al al al Dam (Fiscal % of Day Actu Actu Actu year ending Norm % al al al Sep 30) al of Fore Nor cast mal For eca st Apr-Sep 94 93 76 74 83 Jan-Jul 88 88 78 76 77 Oct-Sep 89 89 80 77 76 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel – EIA Week Wee 2024 2023 2022 ende k d end Oct ed 10 Oct 3 Wind 13 8 11 10 11 Solar 7 7 5 4 3 Hydro 4 4 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 40 44 42 41 38 Coal 17 17 16 17 21 Nuclear 17 18 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day Henry Hub 3.32 3.3 2 Transco Z6 New 1.8 1.7 York 0 5 PG&E Citygate 3.7 3.4 Eastern Gas 1.6 1.7 (old Dominion 6 0 South) Chicago 2.9 2.9 Citygate 7 4 Algonquin 1.8 1.9 Citygate 9 5 SoCal Citygate 3.3 3.5 Waha Hub 0.83 -1. AECO 0.60 0.1 ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Curr Pri ent or Day Day New England 43.3 54. PJM West 54.7 77. Mid C 36.1 45. 4 18 Palo Verde 31.4 29. 0 50 SP-15 28.8 28. 0 47 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )
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